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Conflict Curve/stages of conflict:

Conflict Curve/stages of conflict:

1. Used to analyze at what stage a conflict

2. How intervention can be done

3. It is an important tool in identifying the indicators for conflict early warning

4. It has five stages

5. The tool is used to assess how conflict escalates from one stage to another

6. It helps identify patterns in the conflict.

7. Shows increasing or decreasing intensity of a conflict situation.

Objective of the tool:

1. To identify at which stage the conflict is

2. To analyse the dynamics and events that relate to each stage of the conflict.

Stages:

1. Pre-Conflict:

2. Confrontation:

3. Crisis:

4. Outcome:

5. Post Conflict:

Pre-conflict:

1. Incompatible goals between one or more parties but hidden from the general public

2. If not identified early and proper intervention not taken to address the causes of the tension, it may lead to
confrontation.

Likely Indicators:

ü Rumors

ü War of words

ü Groupings

ü Change of attitudes of previously friendly people.

Confrontation:

1. At this stage the conflict is more open

2. There could be intolerance which could lead to confrontational behaviour

3. If no interventions takes place situation may become polarized leading to crisis

Likely Indicators:

ü Demonstrations

ü Resource mobilization( acquisition of guns)

ü Strained relationships

ü Isolated rape cases

ü Isolated killings and livestock theft.

Crisis

1. At this stage there is open conflict

2. The conflict is at its peak

Likely Indicators

ü Indiscriminate mass killings

ü Lootings/Raiding

ü Stagnation of development programmes

ü Evacuation of international staff

ü Closure of schools

Out come

1. Either one side is defeated

2. there is third party intervention which leads to cease fire

3. when the conflict is ripe for intervention and all parties are tired and ready for dialogue

4. The force of the government could also lead to an outcome

Likely Indicators

ü Ceasefire

ü Negotiation/mediation

ü Reduced tension

ü Willingness to talk by both parties

ü Less open hostility

Post Conflict

1. When finally the issues are resolved and relationships normalize

2. if the cause of the incompatible goals among the parties is not addressed, the tension can occur and revert back to
pre-conflict or confrontation stages

3. However it depends on the issues

Likely Indicators

ü Development resumes

ü Relationships normalize

ü Schools re-open

ü Intermarriages

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